“Plans are nothing, but planning is everything”
Dwight D. Eisenhower

Photo: Wikipedia

Creating an organization’s future is an awesome responsibility and if you’re the leader, you have this responsibility which is dependent almost entire on current planning. There are so many things going on and you have so many problems in the present that it’s easy to overlook or postpone this planning. Frequently, the future is ignored because the assumption that life will be “happily ever after”. But your job is not a mother goose tale. There will be no happiness later unless the intended future is begun today. Many organizations have failed entirely though erroneous planning and decisions made in the present, affected by unfavorable economic, political, technological, or competitor actions. Examining successful and failed organizations indicates that the seeds for what we see today were sown well before. Drucker recognized this. His observations convinced him that what would happen in the future was always dependent on actions taken in the present.  He wrote that what an organization becomes in the future is one of a leader’s most important tasks. They are not impossible if a leader has a methodology and takes the right actions today. Drucker developed a methodology to accomplish this though structured and continuous strategic planning.

What was the methodology that Drucker Envisioned?

Drucker’s definition of strategic planning was “ . . . the continuous process of making present entrepreneurial and therefore risk-taking decisionssystematically and with the full knowledge of their futurity; and then systematically organizing the efforts needed to carry out these decisions through organized systematic feedback.” The important elements always include:

– That this be a continuous process

– That it involves risk-taking decisions made in the present organized and taken systematically with the best knowledge available for their futurity

– That the leader must be totally involved both in development of these actions, their establishment,  and their execution.

Not stated, but implied by this definition is the recognition that a leader is responsible for everything that happens or fails to happen in the organization he or she leads.  Therefore, strategic planning is the responsibility of the leader, and cannot be delegated to a separate strategic planning group.

Full time strategic planners can develop plans and make recommendations to leaders, but it is the leader’s responsibility to give direction, oversee the planning process, establish the strategies, direct their implementation, obtain and analyze feedback, and continually adjust the actions and movement toward the results desired.

Of course, this process does not substitute facts for judgment, or as Drucker put it, “substitute science for management.” What systematic strategic planning does is strengthen any manager’s judgment, leadership, and vision. Accordingly, the leader must be involved as closely as possible in this process on a continual basis.

Therefore, it is a mistake for a leader to establish a separate group for this planning and then just “sign off” on the results. The day to day problems of leading any organization will soon cause the leader to spend less and less time on this critical issue of the organization’s future and simply rubberstamp whatever the group develops, though frequently presented in a well written and smartly bound volume. There are strong benefits to be gained by the leader’s close involvement which are unattainable through any other means.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower, during WWII the general responsible for the largest seaborne invasion in the history of the world before or since, said that based on his experience: “Plans are nothing, but planning is everything.”

This emphasizes continual close involvement in the process from start through execution.

Useful Functions

The plan is a combination of objectives, available resources, and potential strategies. But more than that, it is a road map which will guide the leader and everyone in taking the organization forward to the future to be created. Once the basics are known, the plan can be documented, but they will still change due to environmental change and change in thinking durng execution.

Developing the Plan

Once objectives are better are known, and the situation is repeatedly analyzed, various strategies can be compared. But the situation as it is likely to exist must be determined first.  Repeated analysis of the situation contains a vast amount of information. The comes from repeatedly discusing and analyzing everything that may impact the environment of the business. But herein lies a problem. Our environment today is good only for the starting point. This is certain to change. Drucker saw that many planners simply extrapolated the present into the future, assuming that everything would remain the same or that current trends would continue. Unfortunately, this rarely happens. Along the way there can and will be wars, recessions, technological developments, and the sudden collapse or founding of new corporations. The only thing we know for certain is things will be different and that the environments we operate in will be different.  Forecasting only once for a future environment ten years in the future can be greatly in error. Did you predict the fall of well established corporations, the attacks on 9/11, or the development and impact of the computer and the Internet on business? The pandemic or other recent crisises? Even tommorow’s weather, with all our technology and scientific analyses and modeling is difficult and far from 100% accurate. Drucker’s solution was in two parts which he called “sloughing off yesterday” and “what new and different things we have to adjust for and when.”

Predicting the Future

Drucker recognized the problems in trying to predict the future. His solution was to begin with the objectives of the business. In each area of objectives he first asked: “What resources do we have now and how must we use them to attain our objectives?”  This included “the sloughing off of yesterday.”  He noted that most plans focus on the past including past resource commitments, products, markets, you name it or new product developments. They never talk about dropping current products or projects. This by the way, was one his criticisms of government’s attempt to meet social responsibilities. New projects were continually introduced while older projects were continued even if only marginally successful. So Drucker suggested that a leader look at the situation and ask: “If we weren’t already committed to this, is this what we would do?” And if the answer was no, what should be abandoned? This is Drucker’s “abandonment theory” which recognized that resources for new projects and commitment by top executives and other human resources must come from abandoning those required by formerly, even successful projects.

Drucker’s Claim: “You can’t predict the future, but you can create it”

However Drucker said that certain actions had already occurred or could be made which altered things for the future.“What has already happened that will create the future?” In response to a question as to how he did this, he responded that he simply looked through the window and noted what had already occurred and what it meant for the future.

Baseline Assumptions

With baseline assumptions, the idea is not to forecast, but to make assumptions based on the best information available. This becomes the baseline. Of course, you can use any methodology you choose to arrive at your baseline. As you proceed to implement your strategic plan and measure your progress, you also integrate and update your baseline assumptions so that the environment, trends, etc. while still imperfect, are more up to date and assist in adjusting your actions to keep on track for reaching your goals and creating your future.

Drucker’s Important Differences:

First,  the leader’s view of the future must be representative of what he called “the entrepreneurial view.” By this he meant a willingness to think in terms of contribution, customer satisfaction, and benefit to the market and the economy as well as to accept risks. He believed that the leader must have the courage to make the future happen and that this courage must not be wasted. The decisions taken must meet the test of practicality and what he called operational and economic validity. That is, these decisions must be actionable by the organization and be able to produce real economic results. Finally, Drucker stated that the leader must be personally committed to what he envisioned. He added that whatever reaching the future entailed, it must be risky as the one idea about the future that was certain to fail was the plan with no risk. This, his abandonment theory, and unique planning and its emphasis brought many successes for himself and his clients.

*Syndicated Internationally

** Photo: General Dwight D. Eisenhower addresses American paratroopers prior to D-Day.

*הכותב ד"ר ביל כהן הנו מומחה בתורת המנהיגות. ד"ר כהן הינו מייג’ור גנרל בדימוס בחיל האויר האמריקאי, בעל תואר דוקטור בניהול מאוניברסיטת קלרמונט. כתב למעלה מ- 50 ספרים שתורגמו ל- 22 שפות בנושאי ניהול ומנהיגות. ביל כהן שימש כיועץ בעמדות בכירות וכמרצה באוניברסיטאות הטובות בארה”ב בינהן ביה”ס לניהול באוניברסיטת קלרמונט וב-UCLA. בנוסף, הוא מעביר הרצאות וסמינרים בנושא מנהיגות בכל זרועות הצבא האמריקאי ובאקדמיה הצבאית וזכה בפרסים על הרצאותיו בעולם. מעבר להיותו גנרל בצבא ארה”ב, ד”ר כהן הנו בעל דרגת רב סרן בחיל האויר הישראלי והשתתף בקרבות אוויר במלחמת יום כיפור. שימש בתפקידי ניהול בכירים במספר חברות וכיהן כנשיא של שתי אוניברסיטאות פרטיות. ביל כהן היה חבר דירקטוריון במספר מועצות מנהלים ומועצות סחר עירונית, ממשלתיות ושל תאגידים שונים.ביל כהן היה תלמידו הישיר לדוקטוראט של פיטר דרוקר אבי תורת הניהול המודרנית שאמר עליו בין היתר כי ” ביל כהן היה סטודנט אשר אני והקולגות שלי למדנו ממנו לפחות כפי שיכולנו ללמד אותו”.

ד"ר ביל כהן הוא נשיא המכון לאמנות המנהיגות, מייסד ונשיא לשעבר של המכון ללימודי ניהול מתקדם בקליפורניה CIAM וחבר בצוות המומחים של קבוצת ד"ר עדנה פשר שות'

קבוצת ד"ר עדנה פשר ושות' היא הנציגה הבלעדית של תוכנית CIAM בישראל

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